Bloomberg recently reported that federal regulators who regulate Bitcoin futures trading (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission) said it would keep tabs on Bitcoin futures trading and other markets during a government shutdown, even though it would be forced to halt many other normal activities. What is noteworthy to us is that the regulators felt like they needed to keep monitoring this market during the shutdown (albeit through a skeleton crew); likely for fear that such a volatile market could evolve into chaos as a result of an unanticipated hiccup resulting from a government shutdown. Malcolm Gladwell notes in his writings that catastrophes in inherently dangerous situations are often the result of a series of small mistakes. We think Bitcoin currently falls within the inherently dangerous category (in financial terms) due to its volatility – looks like the price moved about 10% today alone – and it may not be able to withstand too many unexpected hiccups from outside events so early in its evolution.
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